Folklore Statistical Court
Trading folklore survives because nobody counts. "Gaps always fill", "big candles keep going", "round numbers get rejected" get repeated with no denominator attached at all - an anecdote from three good trades, not a measured rate. This EA reduces five such claims to binary hit/miss trials, tests the resulting proportion against a fair-coin (50%) null with a z-test, and withholds a verdict outright below InpMinSampleSize - an opinion built on twelve trades is not a verdict, it is noise with a story attached. The five claims tested: whether an opening gap tends to fill the same day; whether an unusually large body predicts next-day follow-through in the same direction; whether price rejects a round price level it touches the same day; whether Monday tends to reverse Friday's direction; and whether three consecutive same-direction days predict a fourth. Every claim is computed from this symbol's own D1 bar history, so the verdict is specific to what actually happened here, not a borrowed statistic from a different market or era. Each verdict states SUPPORTED, REFUTED (the opposite of the claim actually holds), NOT SUPPORTED (no measurable edge over a coin flip), or INSUFFICIENT DATA, always alongside the trial count and hit rate it was computed from - the honesty of the tool is in showing its work, not just its conclusion. Notes and limitations Five claims is not an exhaustive folklore encyclopaedia - it is a fixed, honestly tested sample; the input parameters tune each claim's definition but do not add new claims without editing the source. Statistical significance at a 50% null does not imply the effect is large enough to trade profitably after spread and slippage - a 52% hit rate with a huge sample can be statistically real and still economically worthless. The Monday/Friday claim treats the next trading day after a Friday as "Monday" even across a holiday-shortened week, which is the correct trading-day adjacency but not literally always the calendar Monday.
Expert advisor · MT5 · v1.0 · Free
About Folklore Statistical Court
Folklore Statistical Court is a script for MetaTrader 5. It can alert you with a pop-up, sound, email or push message. It has 10 settings, such as Lookback days, Min sample size and Z threshold. MQL source code included.
Files in the download: FolkloreStatisticalCourt.ex5, FolkloreStatisticalCourt.mq5, FolkloreStatisticalCourt.txt.
Settings
| Setting | Default | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Lookback days | 500 | Daily bars scanned for every claim |
| Min sample size | 30 | Trials required before a verdict is rendered at all |
| Z threshold | 1.645 | |z| needed to call SUPPORTED / REFUTED (1.645 ~ 90% one-sided) |
| Gap min points | 100 | Minimum open-vs-prior-close gap counted as a trial, in points |
| Big body multiplier | 1.5 | Body must exceed this multiple of the recent average body |
| Round step points | 500 | Spacing between "round" price levels, in points |
| Round level points | 50 | How close a high/low must come to a round level to count |
| Recalc interval sec | 60 | Seconds between recalculations |
| Write report file | true | Write a CSV verdict report to MQL5\Files |
| Report file name | FolkloreStatisticalCourt_Verdicts.csv |
How to install
- Download the ZIP from your PolyMaria library and unzip it.
- In MetaTrader 5 open File → Open Data Folder, then go to MQL5 → Scripts.
- Copy the .mq5 file(s) there. Put any .mqh files in MQL5 → Include.
- Open the .mq5 file in MetaEditor and press Compile (F7) if MetaTrader does not show it.
- Drag the script onto a chart to run it once.
Tags: Binary Options · Alerts · MT5 Expert Advisor · MQL5 Source Code