Signal Hit Rate Overlay
Eyeballing a chart for how often a crossover "worked" is unreliable in both directions - recent wins stand out, old losses scroll off screen, and there is no consistent rule for how far forward a signal should be judged. This indicator fixes both problems for a simple, disclosed rule: a fast/slow moving-average cross, scored purely on whether price InpHoldBars later closed favourably compared to the signal bar's close. Every historical occurrence of the cross in the scanned window is marked with an arrow directly on the chart, and the on-chart panel totals them into win count, win rate, and average signed move for buy signals and sell signals separately. The scoring rule is fixed and symmetric - the same InpHoldBars forward-close comparison for every signal, buy or sell - so the reported hit rate cannot be flattered by choosing a different exit point after seeing how a particular signal turned out. This is a diagnostic for one simple, well-known rule, not a strategy backtester: it has no concept of stop loss, take profit, spread, or overlapping signals, and exists to give a quick, honest read on whether a crossover a trader is watching has actually paid off historically on this exact symbol and timeframe. Notes and limitations - The win/loss rule is a plain forward-close comparison with no stop loss, take profit, spread or commission - real trading costs would lower every reported win rate here, sometimes substantially on tight-hold-period tests. - Overlapping signals are not filtered; if the fast/slow pair whipsaws, several signals can be scored inside the same InpHoldBars window and their return periods will overlap, which understates true independence of the sample compared to non-overlapping trades. - The statistics describe past behaviour on this symbol and timeframe only; a rule with a strong historical hit rate here carries no guarantee it continues to work going forward. - Every signal used in the statistics is confirmed on a closed bar; the still-forming bar is never scored or marked.
Indicator · MT5 · v1.0 · Free
About Signal Hit Rate Overlay
Signal Hit Rate Overlay is an indicator for MetaTrader 5 based on Moving Average. It draws buy and sell arrows on the chart. It has 10 settings, such as Fast ma period, Slow ma period and Ma method. MQL source code included.
Files in the download: SignalHitRateOverlay.ex5, SignalHitRateOverlay.mq5, SignalHitRateOverlay.txt.
Settings
| Setting | Default | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Fast ma period | 10 | Fast MA period |
| Slow ma period | 30 | Slow MA period |
| Ma method | MODE_EMA | MA method applied to both |
| Hold bars | 10 | Bars held forward when scoring a signal as win/loss |
| Scan bars | 500 | Closed bars scanned for the hit-rate sample |
| Corner | CORNER_LEFT_UPPER | Panel corner |
| X distance | 10 | Panel horizontal offset, pixels |
| Y distance | 20 | Panel vertical offset, pixels |
| Font size | 9 | Row font size |
| Row height | 16 | Row height, pixels |
How to install
- Download the ZIP from your PolyMaria library and unzip it.
- In MetaTrader 5 open File → Open Data Folder, then go to MQL5 → Indicators.
- Copy the .mq5 file(s) there. Put any .mqh files in MQL5 → Include.
- Open the .mq5 file in MetaEditor and press Compile (F7) if MetaTrader does not show it.
- Drag the indicator from the Navigator onto a chart and adjust the settings.
Tags: Buy/Sell Arrows · Moving Average · MT5 Indicator · MQL5 Source Code