Intraday Volatility Forecast Curve
"How much room is left to move today" is a question traders ask constantly and usually answer with a gut feeling. This indicator builds an actual answer from the symbol's own history: for every server-time hour, it keeps a running average of how much high-minus-low range has typically accumulated since the day's open by that point, built strictly from completed days so it never peeks at data that has not happened yet. It also tracks the average size of a fully completed trading day. For the currently forming day, the indicator plots two lines: the actual range accumulated so far today, and a forecast of the range still likely to come, derived from the larger of the historical full-day average and the historical same-hour average, minus what has already printed. As the session burns down and today's actual range grows, the forecast line shrinks - a rough, symbol-specific answer to "is most of today's move already behind us" that a flat ATR reading cannot give, because ATR describes an average day, not where within today's specific day the market currently sits. Notes and limitations - Needs at least one fully completed day of history before the full-day average has a real sample, and several weeks before the hourly buckets are well populated - early readings on a freshly attached chart are noisy. - Built for intraday timeframes (H1 and below); on daily or higher charts each bar already spans a whole session and the forecast has no meaning. - The day boundary is detected from a change in calendar day-of-month on the bar's own timestamp, which follows the broker's server time and does not adjust for a differently defined trading-day rollover some brokers use around a weekly gap. - The forecast is a historical-shape projection, not a prediction: a genuinely unusual news day can blow through it in either direction, and the indicator has no way to know that in advance. - Recomputing per bar is O(1) amortised via running averages, but a full recalculation on first attach over very long history still walks every bar once.
Indicator · MT4 · v1.0 · Free
About Intraday Volatility Forecast Curve
Intraday Volatility Forecast Curve is an indicator for MetaTrader 4. It has 1 setting, such as Use server time. MQL source code included.
Files in the download: IntradayVolForecastCurve.ex4, IntradayVolForecastCurve.mq4, IntradayVolForecastCurve.txt.
Settings
| Setting | Default | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Use server time | true | Bucket by broker server time (false = GMT-agnostic bar time, same value on MT4) |
How to install
- Download the ZIP from your PolyMaria library and unzip it.
- In MetaTrader 4 open File → Open Data Folder, then go to MQL4 → Indicators.
- Copy the .mq4 file(s) there. Put any .mqh files in MQL4 → Include.
- Open the .mq4 file in MetaEditor and press Compile (F7) if MetaTrader does not show it.
- Drag the indicator from the Navigator onto a chart and adjust the settings.
Tags: MT4 Indicator · MQL4 Source Code