Daily Expected Move Envelope
A single average daily range hides the shape of the distribution behind it - most days fall well short of the average, and a handful of wide days pull the average up on their own. This indicator builds the actual historical distribution of completed daily ranges over a lookback window and reads two percentile levels from it directly: a "typical" level (default the 50th percentile, the median day) and a "stretched" level (default the 90th percentile, a genuinely wide day). Both are converted into an envelope split evenly above and below today's own open. The result is two dashed rectangles' worth of lines anchored to today's open: an inner pair marking where an ordinary day tends to reach, and an outer pair marking where only the wider tail of days has historically gone. A target or stop placed near the typical line is realistic for a normal session; one placed near the stretched line is only realistic on an above-average day. Range history is read from D1 bars via iHigh/iLow regardless of the chart's own timeframe, so the envelope is identical whether viewed on an M15 scalping chart or the daily chart itself. Notes and limitations - The envelope is a historical percentile of past ranges, not a forecast; a genuine regime change (a news day, a volatility spike) will not be reflected until it has already happened and rolled into the lookback window. - Splitting the range evenly above and below the open is a simplification - real daily ranges are not always symmetric around the open, particularly on trending days. - Needs enough D1 history in the terminal for InpLookbackDays; on a freshly opened chart or thin history the envelope stays blank until enough daily bars have downloaded. - This is a statistical reference, not a trade signal. It does not size a position or guarantee price will respect either envelope.
Indicator · MT5 · v1.0 · Free
About Daily Expected Move Envelope
Daily Expected Move Envelope is an indicator for MetaTrader 5. It can alert you with a pop-up, sound, email or push message. It has 7 settings, such as Lookback days, Typical percentile and Stretch percentile. MQL source code included.
Files in the download: DailyExpectedMoveEnvelope.ex5, DailyExpectedMoveEnvelope.mq5, DailyExpectedMoveEnvelope.txt.
Settings
| Setting | Default | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Lookback days | 60 | Completed daily bars used to build the range distribution |
| Typical percentile | 50.0 | Percentile used for the "typical" envelope |
| Stretch percentile | 90.0 | Percentile used for the "stretched" envelope |
| Typical color | clrDodgerBlue | Typical envelope line colour |
| Stretch color | clrOrange | Stretched envelope line colour |
| Line width | 1 | Envelope line width |
| Alerts | true | Alert once when price first reaches the stretched envelope |
How to install
- Download the ZIP from your PolyMaria library and unzip it.
- In MetaTrader 5 open File → Open Data Folder, then go to MQL5 → Indicators.
- Copy the .mq5 file(s) there. Put any .mqh files in MQL5 → Include.
- Open the .mq5 file in MetaEditor and press Compile (F7) if MetaTrader does not show it.
- Drag the indicator from the Navigator onto a chart and adjust the settings.
Tags: Channels & Envelopes · Alerts · MT5 Indicator · MQL5 Source Code